A pipe dream of a more peaceful Middle East

In the year since the first protest in Syria took place (January 26th according to our universal source of truth, Wikipedia), much has happened, but little has changed.  Assad is still in power and the army and police still maintain order in the traditional way of dictatorship  – arresting or shooting dissidents.  Assad regularly takes to the airwaves and declares his intent to remain in office, regardless of who inside or outside of Syria calls for his resignation.  Except for Russia and Iran, Assad and his government have little support in the international community, and a great deal of opposition.  Europe, many Asian and the majority of Arab states are opposed to Assad’s violent methods and his continuance in office.  The Arab League has taken an almost unprecedented stance, calling for the removal of a sitting Arab government.  The Arab League has sent a delegation to Syria to observe and report on the causes and effects of the violence.  The presence of the League’s observers only seems to have spurred the government to increased violence.  Every day dozens, if not hundreds, of people a reported killed by the government forces.

Although, the League is calling for the Assad’s resignation, it has no mechanism for forcing the issue.  So after weeks of renewed calls for Assad to step down and threats of boycott and diplomatic isolation, the Arab League has taken taken the case to the United Nations.  The UN will be debating a resolution on Syria next week; traditionally United Nation resolutions have little immediate or direct impact.  But at least they make clear where every country stands on a given issue; and occasionally they lead to economic sanctions that may or may have an impact.  I listened to an interview on Arab television earlier in the week, the interviewer asked the “Arab expert” what he thought of the actions taken so far by the Arab League.  He answered, “If you think the United Nations is a powerless joke, you haven’t seen anything – the Arab League is much worse as a joke and has much less power.”  That statement seemed to match everything I have read or seen about the league – it seems pretty accurate to me. The Arab League and the United Nations may be jokes and powerless, but they are the best we have at the moment.

For the world at large,  the United Nations is the only mechanism we have, it may be flawed, but the world without a United Nations is more flawed in my opinion.  Back to the Arab League, today I listened to another interview on Arab television, this time with a Tunisian.   He talked about creating an Arab world ruled by democratic governments, countries where the citizens had both economic and political freedom.  He said he hoped that Tunisia could be the foundation of an Arab Union, a stage past the Arab League – a union modeled after the European Union.  Wow! Suppose there was both a European and an Arab Union – it would make as much as 40 percent of the world one (two, but they might act in congress mightn’t they?) country without borders; groups of nation states cooperating for economic prosperity, but insisting on peaceful coexistence and democracy.  Probably that is just another pipe dream – you know the kind of dream you have while smoking one of those pipes? But in a world filled with violence,  we all need a little pipe dream of peace once in a while – don’t we?

To smoke or not to smoke that is the question

 

The national trend to eliminate cigarette smoking from public places has slowed down dramatically since the recession began.  Part of the reason is the economy; lawmakers have been unwilling to pass any laws that might have a negative impact on  business, and at least initially prohibiting smoking does impact some kinds of businesses.  The progress has also slowed down because it has been so effectively that there are very few easy targets left, states with exceptions for casinos is one of the targets that remains.  Smoking legislation has been a major issue for casinos in every state it has surfaced; two states, Missouri and Indiana have current legislation that would expand the prohibited areas and might include casino floors.  Historically however, casinos have been successful in many jurisdictions in maintaining casinos, or parts of the casino floor, as exempt areas.

Recently there have been two non-smoking stories that do not fit the previous trend, but may represent future trends.  First, in Atlantic City, it is rumored that Revel, the $2 billion mega-casino scheduled to open in May,  may open as a non-smoking casino.  That would be huge, the casinos in Atlantic City fought the original legislation that outlawed smoking in casinos; they complained their revenues went down 20 percent immediately.  The argument carried the day and the casinos managed to get a reprieve and are now allowed to have smoking in part of the casino.  So, if the newest and most expensive casino opened without smoking, it might make it hip and modern to eliminate smoking.  Given the amount of competition the city is facing – currently all of the major competition allows smoking in the casinos – it would be shocking to see AC try the non-smoking niche.  But it could happen if Revel is successful without smoking.

The second story comes from Ohio, the casinos going into Toledo and Columbus are going to screen employees for smoking.  Smokers will not be hired – the rationale is also financial; smokers cost more than non-smokers.  They miss more work and have more health issues and their issues are likely to be more expensive than non-smokers.  Again, if the casinos in Ohio are successful with policy it is one that could easily be copied by casinos in other jurisdictions.

The issue is very personal to me my ex-wife, father, step-father, aunt and two uncles died from smoking related diseases.  Death from smoking is slow and painful, painful for the person dying and very painful for the people watching.  Additionally, I have an interest in a small casino in Colorado – a state that no longer permits smoking in its casinos.  When the law first past, it was not clear if it would destroy our business or not, but over time we overcame the decline caused by the non-smoking regulations.   At the time, my partner (both he and I are ex-smokers) said, “If we survive this, then in the future we will be glad that our casino is non-smoking.”  Niether of us think smoking is wise for anyone, but when your livelihood is threatened it is difficult to take the moral high ground.  However, we did survive and we are glad.  So now it is easier for me to take the high ground (you know I am not taking any person risk with my position).  But I think it is probably time to close the door on smoking in public; in the long run it is better for the customers, it is better for the employees and if you extend the ban to employees it will be better for the bottom line of the business too.

Keeping the criminals from corrupting the gamblers – and – keeping the gamblers from corrupting the politicians

 

Sheldon Adelson

Net Worth $21.5 B As of September 2011 – Forbes

 All casino jurisdictions have regulations that are meant to keep the casino games honest, protect the players and to insure the state collects all of the money it is due.  All key executives and casino companies undergo background investigations to make certain organized crime – the Mafia – and individual criminals are kept out.  Many casino jurisdictions have also limited casino executives from participating in politics.  Some jurisdictions don’t allow casino executives to run for public office and others prohibit casino executives or companies making political campaign contributions.  The lawmakers were trying to keep the criminals from corrupting the gamblers and gamblers from corrupting the politicians.  The idea of limited political participation has always been offensive to me.  After all, are not the owners and executives of casinos private citizens, as well as corporate citizens and should they not have same political freedoms as any other citizen?

It all seemed pretty straight forward to me until Sheldon Adelson decided he wanted to help Newt Gingrich become the next president of the United States.  In just over a month, Adelson, and now his wife, has given $10 million dollars to Newt’s super-PAC.  Some commentators are already giving Adelson credit for Gingrich’s South Carolina victory.  Just how important does that make Adelson to Gingrich?

How much more money might Adelson be willing to give to guarantee himself a seat next to the president whenever he wants to chat about issues dear to him, for example, casino gambling and the state of Israel?   Forbes ranks Adelson number 8 on its list of richest people in the world, with an estimated $21 billion of net worth.  Adelson only makes $3 million a year in salary, but he appears to have more than that to give away to get his way.

And if Adelson can buy a president, just who else with the financial resources might decide to own a president as well?  Suddenly the restrictions on political contributions from casino operators does not seem quite so undemocratic to me; in fact, given Adelson’s current impact on the GOP presidential process I would be willing to add to the list lots of other very rich people. But then, under the current laws aren’t corporations considered individuals?  In that case, should we not consider……….? But wait, didn’t we already pass laws limiting political contributions?  Adelson has just illustrated for those of us that missed it, the those laws are not working.

 Dr. Miriam Adelson, the wife of Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, will match her husband’s $5 million contribution to a political action committee supporting Republican Newt Gingrich’s presidential bid…Sheldon Adelson’s $5 million contribution to the Winning Our Future super PAC is credited with helping propel Gingrich to victory in South Carolina on Saturday…The contribution from Miriam Adelson comes as the super PAC is preparing to air campaign ads in Florida, a state where Mitt Romney, Gingrich’s chief rival, has already been spending heavily. Anjeanette Damon, Hispanic Business, 1-24-12

Hooligans misbehaving – small boys being bad

Lokomotive Leipzig fans before their team’s encounter with Dynamo Schwerin in the FDGB-Pokal in 1990. Wikipedia

Watching professional football, baseball or basketball can be entertaining and exciting; it can also be boring, inane and filled with way too much advertising.  However, it just watching a game – grown men playing a game – it is not any more important than that.  Your team may lose or it may win – but it was just a game.  Yesterday four professional football teams competed to see which two teams of the four will play in the league’s championship game – the Super Bowl.  Two teams won, two teams lost – the winner won the game – meaning they scored more points than the losing team.  The loser lost the game – they scored less points than the winning team.  Points – just a way of determining which team wins the contest – the game; it is not life or death.

The game (any game) is not more important than choosing the next president or the violence in the Middle East; it is not more important than the economy or the debt crisis in Europe; it is not more important the nuclear weapons in Iran or repressive governments in the former Burma.  In fact, the results of that game, or any other game, is not more important than anything – it is just a game.  And yet some people threatened losing players with death, wished death on their families and hoped a player might die in his sleep.  What kind of a value system produces people who think like that?  Hooligans they are called in Europe when they disrupt soccer matches, bad boys they are called when the disrupt the other children’s games on the player ground – either way they are the same thing – childish misbehavers.

Look at the picture above, can you identify the teams, the cities or the tournament or even the sport?  No? That is just how important those games yesterday were – in the rest of the world or in a hundred years it is all non-nonsensical, meaningless, foolish games played for no purpose.  Those games only serve to divert us from our daily drudgery; that is it – entertainment.  If you want to be passionate about something, there are lots of ways in the world to put your passion to work on something worthwhile, something meaningful – football will never be on that list.

Afterthoughts on aftermath

Time Magazine’s published a photo essay on the abandoned, rotting, magnificent buildings in Detroit by French photographers Yves Marchand and Romain Meffre. Detroit and Buenos Aires are probably the two most interesting places on the planet for me right now, because, put together, they answer the question, “What do you do when your industry and your economy utterly collapse? What happens when the numbers on the spreadsheets tell you that the bricks in the walls have no value?”

In my arguments yesterday, I left out a couple, probably more, but two will do for the moment, of potential events that could create the outcome I was seeking – economic growth in Reno.  One is already taking place and the second is too scary to even look at too closely.  First the scary one.

Today, I watched an hour special on Al-Jazeerah commemorating the anniversary of the beginning of the overthrow of the Mubarak regime.  To the Egyptians, unlike the rest of us, the beginning of the dramatic change was not in Tahrir Square and all of those relatively well-behaved demonstrators.  To them it began in  Suez, quietly at first, but ended in violence, death and burning buildings.  The citizens of Suez started with mild protests about election procedures but police tactics escalated the protestors into revolutionaries.  Suez has a model that no other Egyptian city has, in 1973 Suez resisted the Israeli occupation, attacked the Israeli forces and burned down the police station that was their headquarters.  The demonstrators a year ago in Suez were well aware of that precedent and cited it frequently in their rhetoric.  They went much further this time and burned down many more buildings than the headquarters of police (the same building they burned in 1973).  So that is the first of the two events I left out of my argument, revolution and civil war – in the aftermath of those events, too, there is much to repair and rebuild. It is not a model we would like to follow, is it?

The second event, while it does not generate immediate economic growth, does address unemployment rates – population egress – people moving away.  For the better part of 50 years Nevada led the nation in population growth, most of that growth was in Las Vegas, but Reno too attracted people looking for less expensive homes for their retirement or jobs in construction or gaming.  While, our housing prices are still less than California, it is not as easy to cash out in California and move to Nevada as it was in those go-go days of yore.  And of course the jobs possibilities are long gone – except possibly in light manufacturing and warehousing the only two segments of our economy showing any signs of growth.  But in general, we have lost people, most of those that came here for construction, gaming, lawn care, gardening or entry level retail have been forced to move on.  Reno at moment is much like Detroit, the major industries that drove our economic growth for a very long time are shrinking dramatically, the revenues and the employment are both effected.  Casino revenues and casino employment for example are lower than anytime in the last 25 years; construction cannot be too far behind.

However, the bad news in this case becomes the good news.  When enough people have gone our unemployment rate will drop.  We won’t have gained any new jobs, but a much higher percentage of our population will be employed.  That fact alone will make for a healthier economy.

Opportunity in the aftermath of an earthquake or fire

Stockton Street from Union Square, looking toward Market Street, Wikipedia

Choosing the right metaphor can be really important; the metaphor can, and often does, become the model and thereby reverses the process.  Instead of using the metaphor to help us visualize or describe something, we look to the metaphor to help us plan.  That may work, that is as long as the metaphor is applicable and remains so when you extend its use; just a word of caution, that rarely is true.  Today I was talking to a friend who owns a real estate franchise locally; he was talking about the challenges of the real estate business in Reno four years into the recession.  He has to hustle, look for opportunity in places he would have ignored in good times – now he needs to explore every possibility.

My friend told me about the beginning of his company over a hundred years ago; the two founding partners got their start in real estate in the aftermath of the San Francisco earthquake of 1906.  My friend is trying to take a page from his company’s history and follow some of the methods for developing business those two men used in the rubble of San Francisco.  It occurs to me that the aftermath of an earthquake might be a good metaphor for our times.  Weren’t we hit by a financial earthquake that destroyed a huge part of the financial, business and government structure?  Didn’t we loose hundreds of businesses and even industries in the quake?  I loved the metaphor and I was ready to run with it – but there is a major problem.  The earthquake in San Fransisco created an unprecedented building boom – all that was lost needed to be replaced and replaced as quickly as the resources could be found.  The good citizens and the city in 1906 needed workers, materials, financing, government regulations, government services, transportation infrastructure, land and the title to that land.  Out of that rubble jumped almost overnight a dynamic economy.

We, at least in my little corner of the world, sit in a pile of rubble, but there is no need or sense of urgency to replace any of the things that were lost.  Real estate, government and construction are in shambles, but there is no will, nor any need to recreate the world of 2007.  Nationally home sales were up in 2011, that is up from 2010 – they are still 30 percent below 2007 and Nevada is worse than any other state; and the largest percentage of sales are not to first time buyers (in the good years they accounted for 40 percent of total sales), but distressed sales- short sales, bankruptcies and foreclosures.  In our region, according to my friend the real estate guy, office vacancies run as high as 50 percent in some areas.  And we all have seen all of the empty retail space that litters our community.   There clearly is no need to build new houses, office buildings or retail space – retail vacancies in this region are as high as office vacancies.

So what about employment, after all people with jobs and money to spend are the engines of our economy? You can image how much consumer spending was generated by the thousands and thousands of workers rebuilding San Francisco. They needed housing, transportation, food, clothes, entertainment, recreation and, of course, something to drink.    In Reno we have regained just 1.6 percent of the jobs we lost; and our region lost nearly 20 percent of the total number of jobs that existed in 2007.  So we can’t look for newly hired people with money, we can’t look to real estate or construction.  How about government? It was hit probably worse than any other segment of our community.  Government in Nevada is still shrinking, each new budget cycle is still forcing more cut backs.  By law we have to balance our budgets, which means we can only spend what we take in taxes.  Taxes are down, government is down.  Not a pretty picture – but here we might go back to the metaphor and ask if it can help us?

In the aftermath of a major earthquake, or fire, we have more experience in Reno with major destructive fires than we have with earthquakes, any way in the aftermath of the destruction there is the need and the will to rebuild.  What might we do?  It is hardly practical or even legal to burn down a bunch of houses, empty office buildings or useless retail malls – but could we shake the earth and knock them down?  There are thousands of problems legal, financial and practical to such an idea.  But if we could suddenly be granted a wish or two; what if we could tear down hundreds of outdated, empty and under-performing  buildings and houses?  Just enough to create a need for new ones, just enough to create a bunch of jobs and investments, just enough to put some more money in the economy buying stuff.  Okay, it is foolish, but we are going to have to explore some new ideas, concepts and methods – this situation is not going to heal itself any time soon.  Like my real estate friend, we are going to have work harder and try some new things.

And then what? A Flower in the Desert

Since I first watch the movie Desert Flower, I have been trapped in one simple line from the film.  The film is the story of Waris Dirie, a Somalian model who was circumcised as a child.  As a teenager, Waris fleed Somalia and ended up in London.  Eventually, Waris became famous as a spokesperson, a model and as an author; she was and is an advocate for ending female circumcision; besides being beautiful and talented, she is very thoughtful and self-aware.  In one scene in the movie her friend and roommate gives her the telephone number of a young man who had caught Waris’ eye in a night club.  The friend suggested that she call him and Waris replied “and then what?”

That simple question contained all of pain and agony of her life, but it also showed Waris as a person aware that something always follows every act, consequence if you would.  That awareness is not common in our race and certainly has not been a regular part of my life.  However, for a while I intent to us the phrase to help me think through issues, both personal and public.

It is a fascinating exercise and one I would recommend to anyone.  In the exercise, the question is asked over and over again as one gets deeper into the subject and the possible ramifications of the action that lead to the initial asking of the “and then what?” It is a particularly interesting exercise to apply to public issues.

Today, I am not going into any depth with one subject, I only wanted to introduce the concept and give a brief example.  Lets say for discussion purposes we, you and I, are sitting in a board room with the board of directors and management of Genting International at some hideaway in Malaysia.  The chairman says, “I have an idea – lets buy some land in Miami Beach – it would be a great place to build a resort.”  As a responsible board member, you then ask innocently – “and then what?” Well, he says then we suggest to the city we will build a $4 billion resort, with a casino, of course. – “and then what?”  Well we put together some great drawings and plans and do a presentation that knocks them off their feet – “and then what?”  They are over joyed and give us the keys to the city – “what if they don’t – then what?”  Well, he is starting to get a little annoyed, but what the hell.  ” Well, then, we convince them with a media campaign, you know television ads and of course lots of campaign donations.  “don’t they have to pass a law first – what then?” They will, of course, they want our money – “but if they don’t, then what?’

But you get the point, we should work our way through lobbying and lawmaking, identifying the opposition and confronting it, identifying the competition, because by then we will have realized as soon as we make the first public statement about our intent there will be others who want to steal our idea.  Subsequent to the legislation there will be regulations, taxation, biding, financing and a hundred other issues to confront.  If we do our job right, before we ever leave our cozy little retreat, we have developed a plan that will see us through the months and even years this battle will take – hopefully without too many big suprises.

Did Genting do that?  I don’t think so, I think it bought the land and floated the proposal with no thought to anything but putting money in the bank.  Genting is not alone, I think most people and corporations approach life just as Genting did, on a wing and a prayer, but no real thinking.  They should all hire Waris to help them. I haven’t sent her a check, but she has earned one from me.