One finger more or less –

18-year-old Nguyen Huu Tinh, from Tan Hung District, Long An Province, reported to police yesterday that a casino in Cambodia had captured him and then cut off one of his fingers after he lost US$3,000 there and his relative in Vietnam failed to repay as quickly as required by the casino. Baomoi, 12-30-11

 

Another story from Cambodia that I could not resist; so you think it was terrible to kidnap a 13-year old girl and hold her for a month until her father paid in debt?  Well, how about cutting off a gambler’s finger and sending it to his family as incentive to raise the money to a pay the nine-fingered gambler’s debt?  I call your one finger bet and raise you another finger and a thumb.  It makes one wonder why anyone from Vietnam would go to Cambodia to gamble.  Hell of a way to end 2011, losing $3000 dollars and a finger in the process and the boy is only 18 – we can only hope the rest of his life is better than 2011 was.

Challenging times ahead for Macau?

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Macau Palace above was one of Stanley Ho’s bustling casinos when Ho had a monopoly on gambling in Macau; but for years he has had to compete with other operators, Wynn, Sands, MGM and Crown.  The old floating palaces were not good enough and so they float vacant and deserted awaiting a new fate.  Ho’s other casinos still have the largest market share, but are slowly losing ground to the newer, bigger and glitzier casinos operated by outsiders.  The competition is pretty fierce, especially for the big players, the high-rollers, the famous whales who bet more in on one turn of the cards than 1000 day-trippers bet in a whole day.

The Motley Fool had a piece today speculating on the future of gambling in Macau.  Now, to most people, the future of gambling in Macau is without limit and will ever be expanding, this year it is on track for a 40-50 percent growth in gaming revenues from last year; and last year was nearly double the year before.  The reason for Macau’s success is simple, 1.3 billion people live next door and Macau is the closest casino for anyone with a few extra dollars to throw around.  So what could go wrong?

The Fool wonders what will happen with new currency regulation in China that may lead the gamblers to take their money some place outside of the Chinese government’s sphere of influence.  The Fool sees two reasons for concern about Macau’s future; the government wants the winnings to come back to China and is tightening the noose; second it is thought that most of really big players are playing with stolen money – much of it stolen from government sources – the rest from major corporations. Both of which would like to stop the thefts and put the thieves in jail.

Unlike other gaming jurisdictions where the bulk of gaming revenues comes from slot machines, the majority of the gaming revenue in Macau comes from high-rollers – Chinese high-rollers.  If something happens to stop the flow of those “whales” it would get ugly in Macau.  However the sources of the funds is not the only weak link in cash flow chain in Macau.

Besides the suspicion of stolen money, there is also a strong believe among observers that the junket operators are themselves part of “organized crime” – using loansharking, extortion and even kidnapping as every day tools of business.  Not a good foundation for a sustainable future is it?  Players playing with stolen money being manipulated and exploited by organized crime figures – it makes the old days in Las Vegas look like Disneyland.  I ran across a story, although not from Macau, but from Cambodia, that illustrates the kind of tactics that are reportedly being used in Macau.  A 13-year old girl was kidnapped and held hostage for a month until her father, a degenerate gambler from Vietnam, paid his gambling debt – $4,700.

In Macau it is said the gangster/collectors kidnap the gambler instead and hold him hostage until his family comes up with the money and no one, it seems, cares where they get it.  The gambler is locked in a room, barely fed. given a cell phone and told to get the money.  The Fool may be right, it was just too good to last.

Gambling is not inherently evil nor corrupt, but it does attract some pretty sleazy people at times; and they are not always from Chicago with names that end in a vowel.  Every time I think that gaming regulation is overdone and based on fears that are 50-years old something like the girl in Cambodia and the funds from China surfaces.  To make gaming – the game of gambling – secure, sustainable and legitimate requires strict regulation as annoying as that may be.

 

Putting the dictator in the ground where some think he belongs

A portrait of Kim Jong-il is carried during his funeral procession through the snowy streets of Pyongyang. The funeral was delayed for several hours after more than 5cm of snow fell in the North Korean capital overnight.  Associated Press, Guardian, 12-28-11

Today the North Koreans are burying Kim Jong-il, but not the dictatorship his father created.  The dictatorship will continue under his son – and possible his uncle a few army generals.  The transition is as peaceful as one of our presidential changes, no violence, no protests just a parade (if one can call a funeral procession a parade) and a speach or two.  “The king is dead, long live the king.”

Several days ago I posted some thoughts on dictatorships; I tried to make an argument for the potential of a safer life, maybe even a happier and better life, under a dictator.  Look at the alternatives as Syria, Iraq and Libya are bathing in blood.   I wonder how many people would want the old system and the old leaders back?  Of course, I can not imagine such a system here, or moving to live under a dictator in some other place; but, if faced with a the possibility of real civil war to rid us of a dictator would I choose safety and security over liberty and freedom?  You might not think it could happen here, but, many people believed the Roosevelt might have become one if he had lived long enough and certainly people on left worried that Bush and Cheney were taking the first steps to a military rule.

My real purpose in writing the blog was to explore the ideas and possibly get other people to do the same.  It worked.  Here is a response from a friend who has experienced a dictatorship and knows what choice she would make.

Ken,

This is a response to your last blog…which troubled me.  I agree with your conclusions about the U.S. and its involvement in other countries, but I have trouble with the way you got to your conclusion…

My closest and most intimate experience with people who grew up in a dictatorial society, occurred when I was working in a long term project in a post soviet country.  They were, at the time, just ten years away from the fall of the Communist regime and many of the people I met bemoaned the loss of their security as they struggled financially and politically to build their futures.

 As I got to know these people, I realized the effects of growing up in a political system that gave them security without freedom.  The most striking aspect, for me, was that though these people were SO SMART and capable, their problem-solving skills were extremely under-developed.  When faced with a problem, they tended to say, “that’s the way it is” and walk away rather than to try to think of a solution to the problem.  I came to realize that this attitude was the result of feeling powerless to make change or to influence outcomes.

 Related to this was their distrust of everything and everybody.  If I had to have a title for their lifestyle, I would call it “Let’s Make a Deal”…I guess when you grow up in a society where there is little to go around and where you have to sneak around to get what you want, this becomes the way you think about the processes involved for survival in the system.  It seems ironic that a socialist regime was composed of people who knew, that to survive, every person had to be for himself and only for himself.  The people I worked with had no experience working in groups.  They had never done that before – had no idea of how to share ideas, help one another think through a problem, etc. 

The apartment blocks I saw had fallen into a state of disrepair.  I was told that under the old regime, everything was taken care of…somebody mowed the grass, somebody else changed the light bulbs, etc…but that now they had no idea of how to work together in  what had essentially become condominium living.  Why should I help fix the roof if it’s not leaking water into my apartment?  They had no idea of how to work together to create an environment that was beneficial to all.

 So, why do I have trouble with the notion that a strong arm of a dictator can protect the weak?   The quality of life, the mind set of people who are “safe” but without self determination produces a lifestyle, that to my mind, is perhaps worse than the tumult and chaos that exists when that way of life is overthrown… The rate of alcoholism in soviet dominated countries was much higher than in democratic nations – which to my mind, represents the individual’s attempt to step outside – for a moment in time – a world that deprives him of the opportunity to exert his own power to make things different, to make things better.  When you ask…Would you like to have your city torn apart by violence and political divide?  No, if it had no purpose…Yes, if it meant a change to the dreary life and the unrelenting monotony that a dictatorship – even a benevolent dictatorship, if there is such a thing, had imposed on me.

2012 just may be the year of the Online Gambling Spring

 

In the world-at-large, 2011 was the year of the Arab Spring; it was a year where social unrest spread, not just within the Arab world, but to many (some would say most) of the countries developed world also.  The Arab Spring will define 2011 for a long-time; when something as significant as the Arab Spring happens, and dominates international news for a whole year, one is tempted to speculate: “what will next year bring?”  Can anything top that?  Not likely, 2011 was a very unique year, probably not since end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century has the world since as much social unrest in one year.  It certainly has led me to wonder more than once about 2012, to wonder about major world events that might occur.  It also has me wondering what significant events might there be for the gaming industry next year.  For while social discontent was spreading around in 2011, so was gaming and it will continue to spread in 2012 – but that is not what is going to define the year for gaming – online gaming will.  Here is my prediction – 2012 is the year online gambling gets going for real in the U. S.

 “We conclude that the Criminal Division’s premise is incorrect and that the Wire Act prohibits only the transmission of communications related to bets or wagers on sporting events or contests.” United States Department of Justice, 12-24-11

 As 2011 ends, Florida, New York and Massachusetts are threatening to bring the gaming industry to a whole new level – and until recently that seemed like really big news – not an Arab Spring kind of big, but big never-the-less.

And then out of the blue, catching the whole industry off guard, the Department of Justice decided to send a Christmas gift to gamblers across the land. On Friday, December 24, 2011 the Department of Justice issued an opinion that the Federal Wire Act, regardless of any enforcement actions taken in the past 50 years, applies only to sports betting.  So, in 2012, all bets are off.  States can certainly allow online gaming within the state as Nevada, District of Columbia, Illinois, California and New York plan to do; in fact with three days of the opinion being released, Illinois announced plans to move forward with its online lottery.

It gets better, it appears that any state with gaming, and at this point only Hawaii and Utah have none, can make arrangements with another state with gaming so the citizens of both states can make online wagers in games based in the other state.  So with a set of reciprocal agreements, between the states, citizens of every state in the union, except Hawaii and Utah, will be able to gamble online – on anything but sports.

Congress is now off the hook, there is now no need for federal legislation, regulation and consequently no federal taxation either.  The states are free to regulate online gaming themselves and tax it – wow!  Thank you Uncle Sam and a Merry Christmas to you too.  So there you have it, 2012 will be the year of the Online Gambling Spring – sprung strait from the Department of Justice. Okay, it will not change the world the way the Arab Spring is changing it, but in my little professional world, the DoJ’s action may be prove to be just as significant.

A leader with a strong arm can protect the weak

JODI BIEBER / INSTITUTE FOR TIME

This Time magazine cover carries an implied threat, without the Americans, Afghanistan will descend into chaos where the Taliban will cut off the nose of young girls as they did this girl.  It is a common threat by those wishing to maintain their power – without me life will become a living hell for every citizen of the country.  In particular it is a threat that dictators use to frighten the population into submission.

Since Kim Jong-il’s death I have been rethinking dictatorships. At first I could not understand how anyone cared when he died. However, it is becoming much easier to understand.  In fact, now I am wondering about the people who want change and are willing to face an uncertain future and dangerous. What motivates them?

As spectators we often think change is for the best, but that may not be true. It is some other country undergoing the revolution and turmoil, so we personally are not facing any serious disruption of our lives and that makes it easy to cheer for upheaval and change.  Changes in national leadership can bring turmoil, violence, economic crisis and even war, conditions that the average citizen does not like or what; would you like to see your city torn apart by violence and political divide?

Dictators promise a better world, by suppressing opposition they create a kind of social security.  If you are not part of the suppressed it can be a good life.  Often the people believe what the dictator says – certainly a large number of people in North Korea did.  Kim may not have given them much, but they were safe in the streets and in their homes. Unless they were dissidents or malcontents.

Even a transition as smooth as North Korea appears to be is threatening.  How does anyone know what to expect?  Will there be purges and if so who will be purged? Will there be some aggressive military action against South Korea or a further diplomatic isolation of the country?  Or will the new leader embrace diplomacy abroad and democracy at home?  No one knows.  Today, 100,000 thousand people gathered to protest in Russia, demanding change.  One of the protestors answered Putin’s claim of potential disaster without him by saying there are a few people standing in the wings in Russia capable of replacing Putin.  But finding someone to replace a long-term, firm-handed leader is not easy; just look at Iraq.

All of things that Saddam Hussein foretasted in terms of chaos and violence did in fact come true.  And they have come true in Egypt and Libya.  Mubarak is gone, but the streets of Cairo are not safer, nor are there more jobs or even more democracy.  Tunisia seems to be faring better and it is too soon to judge what might happen in Libya after Gaddafi.  However, there is no guarantee of a better life for the average person in any of those countries.

I would not want to live under a dictatorship, but I think I am beginning to understand why someone would – it a way its a safer and more certain life.  So what if you can’t buy a new car? At least you are don’t have to worry about anyone stealing your car and killing your wife and child in the process.  A powerful government can protect its weakest citizens – and sometimes that is almost every citizen.  The United States can not protect the world, nor can we guarantee democracy or a thriving economy to anyone; in spite of what we may have previously thought.  That suggests to me we should be a bit more judicious in advocating government upheaval around the world.

The acting was great, but the grief might still be real

The older one gets the more time one spends standing by a coffin listening as preachers, family and friends tell  tales of the deceased live through their eyes.  Every time I learn hear things I had no idea about; usually their dedication to causes, generosity and loving nature.  They are not thing one generally learns about a business associate or cause political acquaintance.  Not long ago, I described my surprise at the funeral of a man who had worked with my ex-wife.  A minster, niece and grandson talked about the deceased man’s life, his love of family and friends, his golf game and his long and loving marriage. It all surprised me, the man they talked about was not the man I thought I knew.  I had that same feeling this week reading and listening to North Korean accounts of the life of the Dear Leader, son of the brave patriot who founded the country and benefactor of North Korea, Kim Jong-il.

In the west, we called him a dictator and claim he lived a very decadent private life out of the view of the Korean people – notice that is the same way we characterized Gaddafi, Hussein and their children; pornographic films, booze, broads and decadent diets.  We know Kim feasted on caviar when the people starved.  He was warm, well dressed and had anything his heart desired at the tips of his fingers while his people huddled in the mud and cold.  However, that is not the story the Korea media tells, nor one you hear from the residents of North Korea.

I watched a special on North Korean theater on al Jazeerah – filmed at least partially in the academy for film directing and acting.  According to the story, Kim founded the academy to train directors and actors to make realistic films that depict the struggles of North Korea to survive in a hostile world and to strengthen national pride and culture; we call it propaganda, they call it patriotism.  Unknown to us, Kim is considered a genius of film, theater and the circus. The Dear Leader was a man of many talents and many facets.

When the film makers asked the actors about their goals, they replied with not one, but two goals.  To “bring joy to the Dear Leader” and to “be good patriots.” One young man’s mother was also in the interview, she commented, “If you are a good actor you will be a good patriot.”  I may have been wrong making jokes about the mourners and their grief; it would appear that the personality cult of our Dear Leader is so strong and so all pervasive that the average citizen may not have been acting, but sincerely grieving.  The grief may be real, after all they have been told all of their lives that the Dear Leader has brought to them opportunity, security, wealth, health and happiness.  In their gratitude, the greatest accomplishments would be to bring joy to the Dear Leader and to be good patriots.   What can they do now? It is impossible to bring joy to a dead dear and who knows what will please the baby dear? And how does act like a patriot now?  It must be very confusing and a little frightening to be a North Korean now – I think I would be be grieving over the loss of certainty also.

December 21st, the day the worm turns

The sun sets behind Stonehenge in southern England.

 

In the later years of her life, December 21st was my mother’s favorite day of the year.  This is the day when the days stopped getting shorter and will now begin to get longer.  My mother liked to walk and walk every day – even at 80 she expected to walk between 4 and 6 miles a day.  But she had to wait until evening when everyone came and took their children home – yes she was still caring for children even in her 80s.  That means in the winter she had to walk in dark, worse she was losing her sight and felt very uncertain walking alone in the dark – she hated the cold and dark as walking companions.

So she eagerly waited every year for the time when she could add a minute of sunlight every day to her life.  From this low point of daylight and sunshine it just a hop, skip and a jump to February when there will be 40 minutes more of sunshine – and from there it only a short way to the switch to daylight savings time, and suddenly you have a couple of hours in the evening to walk. My mother died 6 years ago last week, but I still think more about her on December 21st than on the day she died.  This was always a day of hope for her and it is a day of hope for me.  The worm is turning and I can almost feel that spring sun sitting above me bringing warm, light and long glorious walks.  Can you feel it too?