When is it too little and when is it too late?

Mubarak Orders New VP to Open Dialogue with Egypt Opposition

All of us have probably had a time in a relationship when we were desperate to save it; desperate enough to consider options we had never considered.   In the multiple phases of the break-up of my marriage of 25 years, both my wife and I reached points – unfortunately not at the same time or even in the same year – when one of us really wanted to save our marriage and was willing to compromise.  In fact, at some point we each became desperate to save it and willing to consider options we had never considered.  So what happened, why weren’t we able to save our marriage instead of ending in divorce.  We had each waited too long before considering the compromises that proposed earlier in our marriage might have saved the marriage –  those points of desperation never coincided with the same period in the other one.  We simply waited too long to be willing, too long to hear the others problems and concerns too long before coming willing.   More skilled, or more commitment people, I am not sure which,  keep the dialogue open and ongoing all of the time, they deal with problems as they arise, they don’t wait until it is a crisis – or to use the current metaphor from Egypt the troops and the demonstrators are in the streets.  At that point one or both sides have passed the point of no return and lost the willingness to compromise.

By all accounts the Czar of Russia was a nice man, a family man and a loving man – his government was none of those things. Worse his country was mired in a war, his armies under-equipped and his citizens on the edge of starvation – it was not a good time for Russians.  When he could see no alternative the Czar decided compromise was in order, partly his advisers were to blame, they selfishly wanted to hold onto their own personal power.  Nicholas Romanov waited too long, just as my wife and I waited too long before being willing to make real compromises and behavioral changes.

Husni Mubarak has suddenly become willing to compromise, but he may just have waited a little too long – the genii seems to be out of the bag.  Maybe not, if his will is strong enough, he army willing enough and his allies loyal enough, he might survive – for a while.  Change is always difficult, and we all have a tendency to resist change and older people find change even more difficult.  I sympathize with Mubarak, I might have saved my marriage had I been willing soon enough to compromise, but I wasn’t.  I am sure, where he alive, that Nicholas, the last Czar of Russia, would sympathize with Mubarak too – but Nikie (that is what his wife called him) also waited too long – I think Husni too has waited too long and is doing too little. Timing in life is everything, in politics, business and personal relationships; survival is dependent on our ability to adapt, change and compromise.  However, more than one group is waiting to see if the Mubarak government has passed the point of recovery – the American government and the Muslim Brotherhood have upped their rhetorical, but are still leaving room to make-up if Mubarak manages to hold on to power.

And now in case you are wondering, the latest act in the Stanley Ho drama – his lawyers released tapes on which Ho says – in response to questions from his lawyers – that he was duped into stopping his first plan to sue his greedy children and they are again disowned.  Of course, it is the lawyers who released the three-day old tapes, Ho was back in the hospital after at least two more changes in direction – “your are disowned and get nothing!  No, I did not mean that, you get everything and I am stepping aside.”  Poor old Stanley doesn’t seem to know from day to day what he wants, but there is always someone willing to help him know, as long as they get a cut.  I suspect there a few old-liners, entrenched insiders with a vested interest in Mubarak continuing in office that are confusing the issue for Mubarak as well.  It is not clear who will get the baton in Cairo or in Macau, but it is getting clearer and clearer that the old guys have to let it go.

The first in and strongest are the ones to fill a vacuum

Protesters say they will never stop until Hosni Mubarak’s regime goes

Things are happening faster and faster in Egypt and possibly too fast to benefit anyone but a well organized and powerful opposition.  Right now, we don’t have any idea what might follow the end of Mubarak’s government, there is more than one possibility and some of the possibilities would not be good for the United States or the region.

A long time ago I worked in an apple orchard; we routinely used powerful chemical sprays to rid ourselves of pests. It worked, that is it worked for a week or two before another pest began a new and equally destructive infestation.  There was an older man who acted as a consultant, Noah, a guide we called him.  He had worked in agriculture his entire life and was “wise” in the ways of nature.  Noah cautioned against using chemical sprays and instead recommend organic natural solutions to recurring problems.  He was the first person I ever heard suggest introducing sterile male insects into the population as a control measure.  His argument was simple, there is no such thing as a vacuum; as soon as you kill all of the insects the door is open for whichever insect is ready to rush in first and strong enough to hold the ground.

They are spraying now in Egypt trying to kill all of the pests that invested  the government of Egypt.  But when there is no government in Cairo, something and someone will move in to fill the void.  Remember the Russian revolution?  Actually, there were two revolutions in Russia the occurred within months of each other.  The first was a democratic revolution, led by Alexander Kerensky, it rushed in to fill the void when the Czar resigned under pressure; however they were not strong enough to hold their ground.  The next revolution was the one lead by Lenin and his Bolsheviks.  They replaced the democrats and the Kerensky government with one that was strong enough to hold its ground and hold its ground it did for 80 years. As the saying goes: “It ain’t over until it is over.”

Every country in the region has cause for concern and is concerned – there are reports that Iran executed a number of political prisoners in recent days to prevent a popular movement generated around them. And we are all aware of the demonstrations in other Arab countries, all feeding off the events in Tunisia.  But every country in the region, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan and the most stable of Arab governments have cause for concern, not necessarily for their own security, but for diplomatic stability that Egypt has brought to the region for years.  All of the major world powers have cause for concern for the same reason, not only do we need Egypt’s presence in negotiations, we need that damn canal.  These are trying and uncertain times.  Regardless of your political perspective, this is the time to pray for stability and a peaceful negotiation for a new government.

Change without changing the genes – the crowd

• 

We have all been inundated with DNA discussion for the last few years as more and more study produces a much deeper understanding for the working scientists and a greater familiarity with the basic concepts for the rest of us.  I remember the O. J. Simpson trial where the prosecution sought to prove his guilt through DNA evidence; DNA as proof was new enough in law that a misfitting glove triumphed over the DNA; the witnesses talked of the statistical accuracy and the defense scofted and pointed out a “vast” potential for error.   However since 1995 a great deal has changed with the use of DNA evidence and with scientific knowledge.  Scientists now use it to date species separation millions of years ago, prove that humans had sex with neanderthals and testify in court to convict and imprison or to obtain the reversal of conviction and realease of a great many people – it has become routine, the daily fodder of criminal trials.

In a simple sense the DNA is genetic coding the determines who and what every living thing is and who and what their offspring will be; if you know the DNA code you know everything about that being.  Well, sort of, below the DNA anlaysis lies another field – epigenetics.  Epigenetics indicates another kind of code, one that can overrule the DNA genetic code without changing the genes and yet produce in one generation adaptions that are different from the parent – that can mean appearance changes or behavioral changes and under some circumstances those changes can be passed on – an idea that was a sacrelige previously.

It seems there are off and on switches – standard DNA theory sees the switches always in the same position, resulting in the same characteristics being exhibit and passed on to the next generation.  However, changing environmental conditions, like weather or fires,  can cause some of those switches to go from off to on, or from on to off result in a different characteristic.  That new characteristic can be something very different from it predecessor.

Epigenetics makes  great metaphor for thinking about crowd behavior.  I watched two very different videos of crowd behavior today and both times I was drawn into the emotions of the crowd.  The first was from a basketball game, students from the University of Wisconsin were doing a dance-like chant and sway expression of support for their team. It last about 5 minutes and the longer it continued the more people joined and the more I could feel the rhythm and the emotion, it filled the gymnasium, but it also filled my chest. The other video – actually videos – is from streets of Cairo; it is not unlike the Wisconsin situation, the longer the demonstrations last the more people participate and the more their behavior alters from what might be termed “normal,” regular, daily behavior of the average citizen of Cairo.

Somehow being exposed to the raw emotions of a large group of people alters our emotions and our behavior.  In Cairo and in Wisconsin, it moves individuals from a simple expression of opinion to a crowd expressing of mass emotion – that can be a good or a bad thing – but in either case it can be powerful enough to change the course of history. When it is over both the students and the protesters will experience a code change, the switch will move from on back to off and they will go home, eat dinner and pass on their genetic code to the next generation with the switch on off – until something happens to switch it to on. Although for the people in Cairo and other cities in Egypt it that switch back to off may not happen for days.

The UK Guardian proved the picture; for the Guardian the tanks in the streets provoked memories also, but unlike mine of the Vietnam era in the United States or Russian power in Prague, the events in Egypt evoke the fall of the Berlin Wall.  I hope they are right and I am wrong – using my model takes years of pain to make the change and bring peace. The Berlin model brings the peace with emotions of the demonstrators – instantly. Go Berlin!

In court and in the streets – big guns

Egyptian army armored vehicle are seen outside the television building following protests in Cairo, Egypt, Friday, Jan. 28, 2011. The Egyptian capital Cairo was the scene of violent chaos Friday, when tens of thousands of anti-government protesters stoned and confronted police, who fired back with rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannons. It was a major escalation in what was already the biggest challenge to authoritarian President Hosni Mubarak’s 30 year-rule. (AP Photo/Victoria Hazou) (Victoria Haz

The fight is not over, not in Macau or in Cairo, the old men don’t want to let go and they are the ones with the big guns.  Stanley Ho, apparently recovered from the spell cast over him by his greedy children and legions of wives is on the attack again.  He denies his denial and is going to get them, all of them, in court. Of course, there are those that say he is now under another spell, that cast by his last and youngest wife, a former dancer and a hottie!  Old men are so vulnerable, and so are their businesses and their legacies, just ask, old Hughie the Hef.

In Egypt, the demonstrations have not lessened, the demonstrators paused to pray and then resumed with greater passion and numbers; the Muslim Brotherhood has called its supporters into the streets for the first time, and it is the first true traditional, party-based political expression of these demonstrations.  The government of Husni Mubarak has responded by trying to cut off  internet access and stop the social media organization that has fueled much of the demonstrations this far; Mubarak has also called out the big guns, the army for the first time. Does the sound of tanks bring back found memories of Prague and Detroit?  The tanks of the armies of the old men always win in the short-term, but the passions of the young men overcome them in time.

Both Ho and Mubarak’s days are limited, at least in the traditional sense, no one lives forever; but before they go, they intended to put up a fight.  The legislature in Indiana is cognizant of those kinds of bitter battles and is postponing hearings on casino legislation until Don Barden’s company works its way through bankruptcy, health issues and the family feud.  Just to keep the thread going, the leader of North Korea has chosen a new son, the youngest, to be his heir apparent, the older one is being punished for sneaking off to Japan to gamble and chase women ten years ago.  These things may seem only a diversion and an evening news version of the reality shows that have dominated television, but besides the legislature in Indiana, the stock market in Hong Kong and in the United States are treading water, marking waiting to see what happens before investors are willing to wager anything.

And so that we don’t run out of things to watch, discuss and analyze we can add Jordan and Yemen to the demonstrating list – and renewed demonstrations in Tunisia.  I am still stunned at how quickly 2011 jumped up and established a separate identity from 2010.

Breaking up is so very hard to do

محمد حسني سيد مبارك

An early comment on my blog came from David; David thought I changed subjects too often and I needed to stay with one subject longer, longer to explore the issue better and to give others a chance to think about it more and respond.  David probably does not read the blog very often any more, I deviate too often from the core subject that interests him, casino operations, and get lost too often on subjects that hardly relate to casinos at all.  And here I am stuck again on a theme only vaguely related to casino operations – this time aging leaders struggling to maintain their place while a younger group of people seek to replace them.

Hosni Mubarak is not as old as Stanley Ho, he is only 83 years old.  But until a street vendor in Tunis decided to make a Radical Political statement, ala the Burning Man, Mubarak was on his way to another term of office, the election was to be in September, if reelected – seen up to this week as certain – he would serve 6 years, making him 89 at the end of that term, Stanley Ho’s age.  Ho and Mubarak have a lot in common; they have been in power for a very long time, they created (at least in their own minds) the world as it exists, they know all about that world and there is a much younger generation desperate for its chance to take over and bring the organization into the 21st century and move the old guys off the stage.  Revolutions are always made by young people, revolutions always seek to replace old people, it is the way of the world.

Both sides have something to say for themselves – Stanley Ho understands Chinese gamblers and he understands gambling.  Mubarak understands Egypt and Egyptians, or at least he understood the 20th century version; both Ho and Mubarak also have an incredible array of contacts and relationships that allow them to accomplish things their younger counterparts could not.  However, the younger generation understands technology – facebook and tweeting created the current situation in Egypt.  The Ho children know about using technologies in the same way to draw crowds into their worlds, keep their interests and manipulate their behavior.   And while the younger generation has less experience and fewer contacts, it is more adaptive and flexible – in today’s world those are very important qualities.

The dichotomy between those two extremes presents a challenge for every business as well as every nation – how to maximize the advantages of experiences and knowledge, while at the same time be flexibility and adaptive.  Even with that problem resolved there will always be the question of succession – when it is time to step aside and who should the new leader be?  They are very important questions and ones that in the best of all worlds are answered by both generations sitting together in dialogue – and not in court rooms or riots.

I occasionally wonder what my career would have been like had I kept my management job in the Comstock Hotel Casino – pretending of course that it had survived the competition from Indian gaming .  If I was a senior manager today, I would be facing this issue personally.   I should be in the process of considering my role, looking for replacements, trying to move younger people into significant roles and wondering when it would be time to leave.  But watching the events in the world, I wonder if I would have been any different than Farve, Ho or Mubarak?  We have not heard his name lately, but Kirk Kerkorian, is 90-something and is still a major share holder in MGM.  I don’t mean to question his abilities, but does he still believe he brings as much game as he did previously?  Is he planing for his exit strategy?  They say that breaking up is hard to do, but giving up seems equally difficult.

 

Ho, Farve and knowing when to fold’em

Macau casino magnate Stanley Ho with his third wife Chan Un-chan (right) and daughter Florinda (left) Photo: REUTERS

Running is very concrete and objective – only two things are measured: the sequences of the the finishers crossing the line and the time it took each to traverse the distance between the start line and the finish line.  It is not a team sport, no one is ever confused by the tweets, excuses or rationalizations – the winner is the first and fastest; he wins by his own effort, unaided by blockers, missed coverage or new product announcements.  Running is also brutally honest – unlike Brett Farve, Hershel Walker or Stanley Ho, I can’t pretend that I still have game – the clock tells the truth – old men are slower than young men, the older the man the slower the runner. It is an uncomfortable truth that a confront every day when I run. Add I have lots of data to use as comparisons, my times for every imaginable distance every year for 40 years.

Other sports and endeavors are less straightforward – in a team sport, like football, a good line or fast receivers with great hands can hide some ugly truths about an aging quarter back., at least for a while.  I don’t know about running backs, we will have to wait and see what happens if Hershel Walker finds a team willing to give him a shot at the comeback he is talking about.  He, like Farve, maintains that he still has what it takes to play the game at that level – in the NFL, yea, like I am going to be on the Olympic team in 2012 running the mile for my country.

It is even more confusing in business; what do we measure?  How do we score?  Football or basketball may not be as objective as running, but everyone knows what it takes to score and at the end of the game, we can compare results and determine which team won and which players scored the most.  Not so in business, when Jobs is gone from Apple a really good accountant could take over the company and produce more profit – at least in the short-term.  But will Apple be as great without him?  We don’t know the answer – the Green Bay Packers seem to be doing very well without old Brett.

There are many, many intangibles in business that work together to produce success and profitability; one of them is a frequent subject of debate, leadership or management (not the same).  Just what does a CEO bring to the party? Are CEO’s worth their salaries, would the company (companies) be more successful with another leader, with a committee of decisions makers or some other structure? Every time we think we know the answer some company like Apple, Miscrosoft or Google comes along and confuses us once again. And it is not just the analysts, investors or employees that are confused, the managers themselves get confused; too often they believe they are the company and everything rests on their guidance, their brilliance, their presence.

The last two days a sad end to what all agree was a very impressive career has been playing out in the international press.  Stanley Ho, the founder of a gaming empire in Macau is old –  89 years old.  Stanley has had brain surgery from which he has been slow to recover and that has lead to speculation over the future of his empire.  In the last few months, Ho has been transferring his stock to his wives and children – he has had lots of both – in what observers saw as a very intelligent transfer of power, control and responsibility.  Monday, came the announcement he had transferred all but 100 shares to his eager heirs.

Tuesday brought a conflicting announcement:  Ho accused those same heirs of being greedy, grasping and stealing his empire from his weakened but still capable hands.  Today, act three was played; Ho, propped up in a chair, reading from a cue card, speaking into a microphone held by a daughter and surrounded by more of his wives and children – said he did not mean any of those bad things he had sad, those things that cause his hers so much pain; no, he didn’t mean it and the kids got everything.  I am going ignore the possibility that he was drugged or forced into his confession reminiscence of the Soviet spy and saboteur trials in the Stalin Era; it is just sad that Stanley Ho could not have done the transfer when he was younger and still in control of both his faculties and his facilities – but unlike a runner, he didn’t not realize he had lost his game and his leg speed.

And this may not be the only case like it in gaming this year – in Michigan, Don Barden, once the most successful African American business man in the country, with television networks, magazines, casinos and other very diverse and successful businesses in his empire, is ailing.  He is much younger than Ho, but still ill – hell he is my age.  His wife is taking him to court to wrest control of the company from him.  She claims that he has lost it and cannot be trusted to make good decisions and left to his own devices would destroy his empire, his assets and of course share of the pie.  He retorts that he is fine and she is just a greedy…. well, you know.

It is a very difficult thing to know – that time in life or poker when it is time to fold’em.  Thank god, that does not apply to me, hell I can still run with the best of them and no enterprise of which I am a part could possibly do without me, right?  Getting old is ugly!

Wading through agendas looking for the truth

Thousands protest in Egypt People across Egypt took to the streets on Tuesday in demonstrations against corruption and failing economic policies, rallies partly inspired by similar protests that rocked Tunisia this month. Thousands were protesting in the capital of Cairo, according to the “Front to Defend Egypt Protesters,” an alliance of lawyers who helped organize the events.

The burning men saga is continuing, demonstrators are in the streets in Lebanon, Egypt and Algeria.  There is tension, but most of the demonstrations are relatively small, contained by the police or military by governments very aware of the flash point that brought the place of Carthage down. But all demonstrations are not created equally – nor do they all mean the same thing.

I have followed the news in the Middle East since 2001; after the events of September 11th and the American attacks on Afghanistan, I realized that even though I have lived in the region once, I didn’t really understand its history and certainly not its major religion; Islam.  Since, I have read hundreds of books, watched many movies and documentaries and for many years have read the English language press from the countries in the region and the two or three major pan-Arabic media outlets.  I am not certain I understand much more about the history, religion or politics than I did 10 years ago.  But it does give me a different perspective that most western media outlets.  Today, I found that includes some BBC reporters.  I was listening to the BBC on radio reporting from Cairo on the demonstrations in that city and around the country.  The interviewer was treating the reporter as an expert in the region and as an eyewitness to the events – he may have been both, but I could not see how; sputtering with annoyance I sat down to write this.

The BBC reporter characterized the movement and the participants in terms that made no sense to me at all.  I have watched a few videos of the events in Egypt and like the reporter I was watching the crowd, looking for indications of age, gender, religious political affiliations and other characteristics that might indicate who they were and more important as we are learning in Lebanon, who their backers are.  The BBC reporter saw young and middle class people, most male, rather like a French student demonstration, a limited and even marginalized segment of Egyptian society.  I saw something very different; what I saw was a crowd with a higher than normal mix of women, women from all walks of life and ages.  The men, were of course the majority,  were both young and old and from mixed social and economic backgrounds – to me it looked like a true reflection of Egyptian society.  They all one thing in common, they wanted a new governmental approach to social problems in general – some thought a new government, but not everyone thought that was necessary – mostly they wanted more jobs, more opportunity, less political restriction and an end to the state of emergency that has existed for decades.

In the west we use broad terms and concepts for the entire region, in general we fail to discriminate between nationalities, religious sects and political parties. And as the saying goes, “the devil is in the details” and the differences significant.  So while demonstrators are in the streets in several countries, the nature of the demonstrations is not the same.   At the moment, Lebanon is very politicized – the demonstrations are part of a battle between political parties for control of the government.  But at the moment, from what I saw, in Egypt the demonstrations are not political or religious, they are social; the official government newspaper and the Muslim Brotherhood paper both describe the demonstrators in much the same terms, broadly mixed and frustrated.

Al-Ahram, the government paper, gave several accounts of the demonstrations, but as one would expect emphasized that they were illegal as no permit had been issued to demonstrate,  but they were relatively peaceful – two people have died so far, a police officer and a demonstrator.  The main story from Al-Ahram was about the conviction and death sentence of the leader of the attack on the Coptic church – citing the conviction as important in proving the government was not going to tolerate religious extremism.  Al-Ahram also reported on a meeting of Arab states taking place at the same time; the organization was supporting initiatives to create jobs and opportunities for young people and recognizing that unemployment and the high cost of food were creating social unrest through the region.

The Ikwan, the Muslim brotherhood organ, also emphasizing the lack of permits, but blamed the government for refusing to issue them, at the same time stating that the demonstrators were not members of that organization.

The Egyptian Daily, an independent newspaper, had may stories covering a variety of aspects of the situation; the Daily related it directly to Tunisia – quoting one demonstrator as say; “If the people of Tunisia can do it, so can we.”  And what would that “it” be?  A change in administrations and some loosing of political restrictions.  Large rallies of highly energized people seeking political change was the way the Daily characterized the events – not much different from the descriptions I have read of Obama, Tea Party, Sarah Palin or any of another mass political gatherings in this country before the last election.  We have been thinking terrorism and religious extremism for too long when viewing the Middle East, we have to be careful not over use our metaphors.  That was more problem with the BBC reporter, he thought he was reporting from Iraq or Gaza and forgot to open his eyes and his mind and really look at what was happening in the streets – that was how Al-Ahram characterized the regional unrest – the Arab Street – is frustrated and dissatisfying with unemployment, food prices and political restrictions.  They want to work, not fight.